60% of the Caribbean Island devastated by Irma, will turn toward the United States, unleashing destructive winds, flooding rain and dangerous seas across Florida.
Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards will spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas.
A storm surge watch has been issued for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas.
The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of the impacts.
A Storm Surge is in effect for-
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane warning is in effect for-
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.
These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.
Reference- National Hurricane Centre Irma Hurricane notice 07 Sept 2017.